Nate Silver is human after all
Just before we all anoint Nate ‘fifty out of fifty’ Silver, let’s remember how accurate his magic was when applied to the 2010 General Election in the UK. Labour prediction, 214 seats (actual result, 244 seats), Lib Dem prediction, 101 seats (actual results, 57 seats).
Perhaps the relatively short election cycle (in comparison to the seemingly endless campaigning in the U.S.) does not generate enough polling data to make Silver’s model as accurate for the UK.